Every week I take a quick look at the dollar, interest rates, gold, oil and general commodities as part of my normal market assessment.  I rarely comment on them except when I see some trends that I think are worthy of additional attention which is the case now.  So here goes with my forecasts for the next 30 days or so:

• Dollar - I expect the USD to stabilize at current levels and strengthen.
• Rates - I think we have bottomed on the 10-year Treasury and will head towards 4.8%.  The inverted yield curve or at least a flat chart is much more likely to me than a steepening given that short rates are probably heading higher as well.
• Commodities - The CRB is showing a marginal upward bias but I do not expect a rapid change in either direction.
• Gold -  Gold in the $500’s would not surprise me, but there is a better chance at holding support around $610.  If it gets to that level, I will have to reevaluate but overall, I am slightly bearish on gold for the short term, but still bullish for the long term.
• Oil -  A trading range of $61 to $68 is my best guess.  As I have previously written, the $57 - $60 level is pretty decent support now and absent a dramatic change in weather or geopolitics, we will likely see an upward drift.

I don’t spend enough time in these areas to feel like an expert so take them for they are worth and check back to see how they turn out.