Continuation from email…
In 2017, Investors Will Say, “I Wish I Listened to You Last Year!”
Wall Street doesn’t tell you that the emerging markets are now piling new debt on top of the old debt, in order to pay the interest on the old debt. Much of the debt is dollar-denominated, while their own currencies are plunging. That makes the dollar debt very difficult to service.
Do you remember all the hype about Brazil and predictions of prosperity forever. In fact, it was the “B” in the term BRIC, which was used for allegedly the top emerging markets. Here is what happened after Wall Street analysts got done with their hype: Brazil suffered an 82% crash!
We are already seeing the warning signals from the emerging markets. Venezuela, which has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, is in chaos. It should be prospering based on its oil. People have nothing to eat and are raiding trucks with food. Inflation is around 700%. The socialist government blames it on business owners.
Now the problems of another oil-rich country, Nigeria, are surfacing. Economic growth has just gone into the recession area, but the central bank has hiked interest rates again to slow inflation. That’s the old, false theory that higher interest rates attract foreign capital and slow inflation. Actually, higher rates do the opposite. Nigeria will eventually go the way of Venezuela. Look at the plunge of 74% the past two years of the Nigerian stock market, just after analysts hyped the oil-rich country.
What do the emerging markets bulls think will happen to the economies of emerging countries that have no oil? How will they service their debt?
At a big conference in July, where Dohmen was a speaker, a show of hands of over 2000 people revealed that the majority was bullish on the stock market. That is a big, negative signal as the majority is always wrong at important turns.
Most investors and money managers go by their emotions: they buy at tops and sell at bottoms. It’s difficult to make money that way.
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